Gambler’s Fallacy
heuristics
representativeness
The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that, after a run of one outcome of events, there’s bound to be a “reversal” or “balancing out”, and therefore the opposite outcome is due. It arises from the representativeness heuristic: a short sequence that is all-heads doesn’t look like what a random sequence should look like, so a tail feels more probable.
In reality, for statistically independent events (e.g. coin flips, roulette spins), previous outcomes have no effect on the next one.
