Law of Small Numbers

heuristics
representativeness

It’s the mistake to believe that a small sample accurately resembles the parent population. In reality, small samples have a small confidence interval and will eventually regress to the mean as the sample grows.

NoteExample

Google reviews

“Let’s try this restaurant, it’s got a 4.8 rating, higher than the other option, at 4.5”. However, with only 5 reviews the Confidence Interval of a review rating might be 4.8 ± 0.90 (hence between 3.90 and 5.00), whereas at 100 reviews 4.5 ± 0.15 (between 4.65 and 4.35). In other words, the latter restaurant’s rating is statistically more reliable.

Is the rating on the left really higher than the one on the right?

Stock performance

Taking into account the performance of a stock over a limited period of time, rather than a longer (and more representative) projectory.