Illusion of Control

heuristics
overconfidence

Illusion of control refers to believing that random events are subject to our control (see also the concept of Magical Thinking in psychology).

NoteExample

Lottery numbers

Believing that picking the numbers of the lottery will increase one’s chances of winning it. In reality, the chances range between 1 in 14.000.000 (smaller games) to 1 in 140.000.000 (Euro lottery draws) or 1 in 292.000.000 (USA Powerball lottery).

“Let me fill in my lucky numbers…”

Also relates to: Overconfidence · Self-Attribution Bias · Excessive Optimism · Gambler’s Fallacy