Representativeness Heuristic

The Representativeness bias takes place when we assess the likelihood of an event by how well it matches (represents) a belief (stereotype) in our mind, rather than by calculating actual probabilities.

Base Rate Neglect

It’s when we overweigh specific information we have at hand (“representativeness”) over prior probabilities in the broader population, when making judgements.

Causality and Attribution

When trying to explain the causes of events, we make errors resulting from the prominence of available information, stereotypes etc.

Conjunction Fallacy

The Conjunction fallacy occurs when one believes that the probability of the conjunction of two events (i.e. occurring together) is greater than that of one of its…

Extrapolation Bias

Extrapolation bias is the tendency to believe that recent trends will continue into the future, without accounting for the reasons that might cause them to reverse, such as…

Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that, after a run of one outcome of events, there’s bound to be a “reversal” or “balancing out”, and therefore the opposite…

Hot Hand Fallacy

The hot hand fallacy is the belief that long streaks are bound to continue, failing to account for systematic reasons or the statistical independence of events. It’s similar…

Illusion of Validity

To think your judgement is valid, even when the evidence you have at hand is weak or unreliable.

Law of Small Numbers

It’s the mistake to believe that a small sample accurately resembles the parent population. In reality, small samples have a small confidence interval and will eventually…